Bitcoin’s brief rally above $73,000 during the past day has the feel of a price performance that could still fade, fast, noisy, and familiar to anyone who has watched bear-market rebounds fail.
What is different this time is not the price print, but the growing alignment of signals pointing to a possible transition out of peak negative momentum.
For context, Swissblock’s momentum framework showed that Bitcoin was climbing out of a deeply negative zone that has tended to appear near major transitions.
According to the firm:
“We’re exiting peak negative momentum, the kind of transition that often precedes a regime change. The key test now is simple: can momentum consolidate above +0.5 and hold. That +0.5 zone is the point of no return, where caution starts giving way to expansion.”
This is because the flagship digital asset has seen several market indicators, including ETF demand and indicators tied to selling behavior, all improving simultaneously.
However, none of them, on their own, declares a new bull market. Instead, they outline the early conditions of a regime change if the improvement holds.
This is why CryptoQuant continues to argue that Bitcoin conditions remain bearish despite the current upside. Its Bull Score Index remains extremely low at 10 out of 100, a reading that signals the broader set of indicators tied to a bullish regime has not recovered.
The split matters because markets often begin to change before they look healthy. A regime change does not require bullish conditions today. It requires deterioration to stop, then improvement to persist.
Demand is improving, mainly because it stopped getting worse
The clearest “what changed” signal is not a burst of fresh buying. It is the easing of spot-demand contraction, a shift from bad to less bad, that can matter more than it sounds.
CryptoQuant’s estimate of Bitcoin “apparent demand” suggests spot demand contraction improved from roughly -136,000 BTC at the start of 2026 to about -25,000 BTC more recently.
The timing aligns with Bitcoin establishing a support base since early February, a shift that looks less like a breakout and more like early evidence that the market can absorb supply without continuing to slide.
The nuance is crucial because while -25,000 BTC is still negative, BTC transitions often begin this way: demand weakens, volatility compresses, and price becomes more sensitive to incremental changes in flows.
That is the stage where rallies can start behaving more like early accumulation and less like purely mechanical squeezes.
Another part of the demand picture is a return of a US-led bid.
CryptoQuant says the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium, a proxy for US-based buying pressure, moved from deeply negative territory in early February to its most positive level since October.
Notably, this has been driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw net inflows of around $917 million during the first week of this month.
This marks a significant divergence from their performance during the first two months of the year, where they recorded net outflows of more than $1.8 billion.
In practical terms, it suggests the marginal buyer is shifting back toward US spot demand as the market tests regime boundaries.
Selling pressure is easing, and price can move quickly when supply fades
Price does not always need a flood of new buyers to rise. It can jump when the market stops leaking supply.
CryptoQuant data suggests trader selling pressure cooled after unrealized losses reached levels last seen in July 2022.
When a large share of traders are already underwater, the incentive to sell at the margin often diminishes. Capitulation can exhaust near-term supply, and it takes less incremental demand to push the price higher.
At the same time, long-term holders also appear to be easing off their selling activities.
CryptoQuant data shows long-term holder selling fell to its lowest 30-day pace since June 2025, dropping from around 904,000 BTC in late November to about 276,000 BTC more recently.
That does not guarantee a new bull market. However, it does remove one of the most persistent bear-market accelerants, steady distribution from holders who bought much lower and are willing to sell into strength.
It also explains why momentum models can flip quickly once demand stabilizes, because supply pressure is no longer pushing down on every rally attempt.
Resistance levels double as the regime test
The near-term battlefield is clear, and the levels are not arbitrary.
CryptoQuant points to $79,000 as the first key resistance, the lower band of traders’ on-chain realized price, a level that has historically acted as a ceiling in bear phases.
Above that sits a larger hurdle around $90,000, near the traders’ on-chain realized price itself, which capped prices during a previous rally earlier in the year.
These levels matter because they approximate where the active cohort’s cost basis sits.
In bear markets, that cohort often sells rallies to get back to even, turning cost basis into resistance. In bull markets, once price reclaims those levels, behavior can shift, with former resistance defended as support.
That is why the move above $73,000 is not the finish line. It is the approach to the line.
If Bitcoin breaks through $79,000 and then holds, while demand continues to improve, it would strengthen the argument that momentum is shifting into an expansion regime.
If it rejects, and momentum cannot hold above Swissblock’s +0.5 threshold, the rally risks being written off as another relief bounce.
Three paths for the next 4 to 12 weeks
With Bitcoin attempting to exit negative momentum, the next phase is likely to be decided less by headlines and more by whether the market can hold its improvements.
One outcome is a failed flip. Momentum fails to remain above Swissblock’s +0.5 threshold, spot demand remains negative, and ETF flows flatten.
Here, BTC price likely rejects near $79,000 and drifts back into the recent support zone, a reset that would fit a bear-market structure.
A second outcome is chop and base. Momentum hovers around the threshold, apparent demand improves slowly but does not flip positive, and flows stay mixed.
In this case, BTC price ranges for weeks, building a base that makes a later breakout more credible, even if it tests patience.
The third outcome is a true regime change. Momentum holds above +0.5 for multiple weeks, apparent demand flips positive, ETF inflows persist, and derivatives pricing becomes less defensive.
Price reclaims $79,000, challenges $90,000 and starts converting former resistance into support, a hallmark of a structural shift.
For now, the rally is best understood as an attempted transition. Selling pressure is easing. Demand is stabilizing. Momentum is trying to move into a higher regime. The proof is deceptively simple, not that Bitcoin can spike, but that it can hold.
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